The Russian-Ukraine Conflict and Its Food Security Implications in Northwest Syria
On February 24, 2022, Russian troops entered Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure, hospitals and food supply chains. The continuing devastation and conflict have shocked the world while after-effects are being felt throughout Europe and the Middle East, dependent on both fuel from Russia and wheat and grain from Ukraine.
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The conflict in Ukraine threatens to exacerbate Syria’s increasing food insecurity. Food insecurity in the country has been gradually rising following a decade of conflict, economic and financial instability, and a severe drought which hit last year’s harvest.
The World Food Programme’s January Situation Report stated that “food prices were 34 percent higher than six months ago, and 86 percent higher compared to the same time last year” making food items increasingly unaffordable for citizens.
Additionally, Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General, stated in February that the number of food insecure people in Syria increased by 9% (1.2 million), now reaching 14.6 million, with families facing increased difficulties in meeting their basic needs. The problem is particularly acute in northwest Syria where more than 4.1 million people (as of February 2022) are food insecure. A significant portion of the population live in overcrowded IDP camps and are heavily reliant on humanitarian aid which enters through the Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey.
Key Takeaways
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Food prices throughout Syria are increasing, up 86% in January compared to the same time in 2021, leading to more food insecurity, particularly in the northwest which is largely dependent on humanitarian food aid and imports from Turkey.
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The conflict in Ukraine threatens to disrupt global trade in essential items, with Ukraine’s production capacity severely diminished and sanctions on Russian goods interrupting supply lines; a situation which has a knock-on effect into Turkey and Turkish imports into northwest Syria.
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Turkey imports 69.7% of its sunflower oil and 78% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. Any potential price increases or wheat shortages in Turkey are likely to affect Syria’s northwest, which is highly dependent on Turkish wheat imports.
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The Turkish-supported Syrian Interim Government and the opposition’s Syrian Salvation Government, both ruling administrations in the region, have implemented policies to combat the high levels of food insecurity, largely relating to bread production.
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The instability of the Turkish lira (used throughout the northwest), poor domestic production, bans on imports from Turkey, and regional and international restrictions on the administrations are likely to undermine any possible gains of local policymaking.
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In an area already heavily dependent on humanitarian aid, particularly aid coordinated by the UN in Turkey and sent through the Bab al Hawa border crossing, maintaining this humanitarian assistance is essential.
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Without a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, global wheat, oil and energy prices are set to soar, affecting heavily dependent countries like Turkey the most. Countries and regions like northwest Syria which are already struggling will need more help to both deal with and recover from the fallout.